The headline spoiled the column. James Pethokoukis, the chart-loving opinion-maker at the American Enterprise Institute, started with a warning: “How Republicans can win even if the economy keeps improving.”
How they can win? Had Pethokoukis lost the rights to his old pieces like “Obama Faces Worst-Case 2012 Scenario” and “If Obama Loses, It Will Be Because of This One Chart?” All of a sudden he was drawing up Republican battle plans based on contingencies, concluding that the party “just might” win if everything remains stagnant.
We’re living through the phony war of the Republican primary. Barack Obama’s buoyant poll numbers aren’t surprising anyone. The bigger worry is that Obama will get to preside over a solid economy. Republicans will re-enact the Bob Dole juggernaut of 1996. That’s not how this was supposed to work.
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Is the New Republican Pessimism widespread? That’s the tricky part: There are different flavors of pessimism. In this period, a lull that happens to feature good economic news and good Obama poll numbers, there are four identifiable sorts of pessimism. All of them were present at last week’s Conservative Political Action Conference, the kickoff of the movement’s year. Not since 2008 had the event been so moody.
What? Me Worry? It's too early to say who will win in November. But Republicans increasingly seem to think it won't be them.

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- Public Discussion (59)
You can make the case that this is healthy, even desirable. “Obama has always been likely to win a second term, as most incumbents running for re-election do,” says Ramesh Ponnuru, a senior editor of National Review who has been shouting about this for a year. “Conservatives were too optimistic about defeating him for much of 2011 and are now, I think, a bit too pessimistic.”
But the pessimism is there, and growing.
- 16 votes
They've figured it out! They must be psycho! Er, I mean, psychic!
- 8 votes
Face it the republicans need to start thinking about 2016 for their next shot at the crown, they lost it this time because of two key things:
1. They underestimated Obama.
2. They underestimated US!
- 18 votes
I disagree CPO. I think the Republicans' weakness doesn't necessarily stem from underestimating anything, but rather from the random nature of (stealing a word from epidemiology) their support vectors. A few minutes ago, I describe today's Republican Party as "two-headed". It doesn't really have a single, shared core value. It's a rather tenuous coalition of mostly religious reactionaries and egocentric greed-mongers, the latter supported by a cadre of anti-tax minions who don't realize that they're being duped into supporting enrichment of a chosen few. Somewhere mixed in there are some true libertarians as well, as well as another cadre of anti-tax minions who don't realize that they're being duped into supporting what is literally a pointlessly ideological concept.
So the challenge for the GOP is to craft a campaign that makes these five separate groups happy - actually, that makes one of these groups happy, and makes three of the other four think that they're going to be happy. (The true libertarians are so insignificant in number that making them happy doesn't matter much.)
That's not impossible - the different core values that each of these groups venerate aren't strictly in conflict with each other - but with limited political capital, it is sometimes a big challenge to put up enough window-dressing to convince these large groups of minions that they're going to be getting something out of this for their efforts. The size of the intersection between the two large groups of minions helps - sometimes you can gain support from someone because you make them think you're going to at least half-satisfy them - but the more folks outside that intersection, the more likely it is that you're going to undersatisfy enough of them off to bring the whole house of cards down.
The way I see it, the Republicans, because of how the party is built on top of a cynically combined set of unrelated values, are much more dependent on the luck of the dice than the Democrats, who generally can capitalize on the full support of the base simply by presenting a compelling picture of how the alternative works directly against what the base practically all hold strongly as their own core value.
- 10 votes
#1.2:Face it the republicans need to start thinking about 2016 for their next shot at the crown, they lost it this time because of two key things:
Yes it was two things all right: shock and stupidity. In that order!
- 11 votes
Great analysis.
My only addition would be there is no unifier in the Republican Party to pull these factions together. The far right will never be happy, there all or nothing let the country go down the drain mentality doesn't lend it's self to anyone leadership. The moderates have gone underground or left the party - centrists get nervous about the money support..so they rarely go out on a limb...so there the party sits.
- 7 votes
The moderates have gone underground or left the party
<raises hand>
- 9 votes
I have always held two conflicting opinions about the Repub nomination. First, that it is mighty difficult to see them nominating anyone but Mitt. Second, that the TP Types are going to demand a bomb-thrower and they may well get one.
Knowing that both can't be true, the question has been how the two can be resolved. Over the past couple months, we have gotten the answer, which is that they cannot be resolved without mutual destruction. Which is what is happening before our eyes.
Looking back now, it is real hard to see how most of those "frontrunners" could ever have had any credibility whatsoever, but they did. Michell Bachman, Rick Perry.... Herman Cain fergawdssakes......the TP types were so united in their hatred of Barry that they had themselves convinced that the name of their nominee wasn't that important because anyone who could breathe would beat him. Meanwhile Romney had successfully developed a perfect strategy for the 2008 election except....uh....what year is it now.....???
All wrong about all that, of course, but oh well.
Obama 2012
- 3 votes
It's too early to say who will win in November, but Republicans increasingly seem to think it won't be them...
...and for the first time in a long time, they would be correct!
- 2 votes
If ANY ONE of those idiots running for the GOP should happen to win the presidency...America loses!
- 3 votes
My only addition would be there is no unifier in the Republican Party to pull these factions together.
Aside from the greedy super-rich, the rest of the GOP's factions have never gotten anything but breadcrumbs thrown to them when their chosen party was in office. Abortion is still legal, the USA is still not a theocracy, not everyone has a gun yet, minorities still get to use the same water fountains and public facililties as everyone else, and so on.
The real picture here is that the GOP was at some point in the 1960's or 1970's gradually taken over by the 1% and turned to do their bidding, while all of the other conservative adherents were promised more and more and more radical things which were increasingly out of the mainstream and unrealistic. By enraging their base and enabling their extremists, the 1% were able to push through empty-suit candidates like Reagan who would simply stand aside and let his handlers make all the decisions. But by the 1994 election, it was no longer enough. They had been promised all of these outrageous social strictures and been denied over and over and over again, and what was a movement bent on changing the shape of America became a movement bent on taking revenge for being labeled and marginalized as too extreme. As much as the Republicans succeeded in the statehouse and in Congress as putting stupid, extreme, bigoted, hateful legislation through, the public refused to stop progressing into the future. Gingrich led the charge with a blast of derogatory labels, and by the time Bush was fraudulently ushered into office in 2000, it was all about hitting back and hitting hard.
So instead of a movement designed to encourage participation in its views, it became a movement increasingly isolated by its views. I don't think anyone can credibly state that the 2000 or 2004 elections represented any kind of mandate by the public to embrace regressive, backwards views or policies designed to enrich the wealthy. The 2000 elections don't count at all, in my opinion, and the 2004 elections were poisoned by a lurid combination of Islamophobia and homophobia. By 2006 the frog was starting to feel the heat, despite efforts to boil it slowly, and multiple, inexcusable failures by the GOP to address America's real problems bit them in the ass. But the dead ends of this dead-end movement were still potent enough to drag down progress in 2010, and we can all see what we got.
Now, the mask is off. The GOP's agenda is revealed as nothing but hatred for The Other, and the puppetmasters controlling all of these proxy groups whose only purpose is to distract from their looting and theiving have been exposed. Thus the 1% vs. the 99% meme. The speed and ferocity with which this idea caught on is tremendous, and will define politics for several years going forward I think. And the GOP may be on its deathbed. They have done an unbelievable amount of damage to their brand, and it is really going to be difficult for them to articulate what they stand FOR in the coming elections. They've screamed and railed AGAINST the 99% so hatefully, so angrily, that they don't seem to represent anyone else (other than a smattering of extremists who literally have nothing to offer America except their rejection of all other Americans).
- 2 votes
let's not get cocky about teapublicons thinking that they are going to lose in November
there needs to be constant reporting about how teathuggery expects to win by any means available to them such as:
- 2 votes
The bottom line is 4 more years, Look to Congress, if you want to see a capsule of the G O P. and they don't give a diddle squat, about the American people. The leaders for the Presidential nomination are Losers, mostly ones who can't get even elected in their own state for dog catcher (Hasbens), (Wasbens), and (Wannapleasebees). Yes they are going to win.....Not.
- 2 votes
The GOP's agenda is revealed as nothing but hatred for The Other, and the puppetmasters controlling all of these proxy groups whose only purpose is to distract from their looting and theiving have been exposed.
It strikes me that making Grover Norquist and his kin the official poster children for exposing that agenda could be helpful. Since we already know that the political advertising's going to go dirty early and just get worse from there (courtesy of Citizens United), I'd love to see the low-information voters meet the people who really pull the strings.
- 1 vote
I think the GOP knew in 08 that 2012 was a lost cause for them. Even with their victories in 2010 they had to know they were in trouble. No way the party leadership would seriously consider Palin ( anyone hear that she thought [thinks?] that the Queen is head of British government), Bachmann (pray away the gay), Santorum (whom the Amish In western PA thought was a little too conservative), Gingrich (take your pic of problems), Paul (lets go back to the policies that allowed WW II to take hold), Cain (u beki beki stan stan), or Huntsman (who dared to serve his country under Obama) to run if they had any hope of winning this election?
I still worry about Iran, I still worry about Greece, and I still worry about the thing I don't know enough about to worry about it.
If Greece bombs Iran, it's REALLY gonna be bad. <^_^>
But right now, Old Smart&Skinny is looking pretty good. He channels Muhammed Ali while the Repubs continue on the Sonny Liston theme.
- 1 vote
LOL, They had a chance with Romney, but they seem to hate him now. Santorum is a complete loon, does he even have any opinions that are not associated with social issues??? Newt is just hated by half the party...
- 7 votes
Don't worry. Ron Paul hasn't yet had his turn as "frontrunner"!
Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha
- 5 votes
#2: Newt is just hated by half the party...
Make that half of one party (repugs) and 100% of the other (Dems)!
- 7 votes
#2.1:Don't worry. Ron Paul hasn't yet had his turn as "frontrunner"!...Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha
Do you think here is still time? Not that it would matter anyway!
- 8 votes
He seemed to think that he was getting majorities of delegates from caucus states. I don't think we have any way of knowing whether or not precincts that voted for some other candidate actually eventually voted to sent Paul delegates to represent them in county conventions or not, until those county conventions take place. And I'm not even sure if we could tell, after the county conventions, whether or not it was Paul delegates who got sent to the state delegation or not, because those people would still be identified as coming from precincts that supported other candidates.
- 3 votes
Ron Paul's probably going to hover around 10-12% of the Republicans and near 0 with Dems. It would take a MASSIVE screw-up by both Mittens and Saint Orum to elevate either Newt or Ron to frontrunner. They may choose Mittens as LCD, simply because he's the only one who can persuade a few Dems in states other than the south and midwest to vote Repub, and besides, he's got enough money to buy his way out of the seemingly endless faux pas comments he's liable to make between now and the convention. Two months ago, I would have given even odds on a re-election. Right now, I'm at 1.25 to one for another four years, and that seems to keep rising.
- 1 vote
No doubt about it we are picking up delegates by the thousands and we know who to vote for at county. At my caucus Romney took the straw poll but we walked away with the majority of the delegates.
- 1 vote
Dean: I'm not that familiar with the deep details about how caucus states work. (Just thinking about it; none of the six states my wife and I have lived in were caucus states.) When we will know, for sure, the effect of this approach you guys have taken? If I understand correctly, there really isn't anyway to know until y'all get to Tampa - is that right?
- 1 vote
That is correct we will not know until the fat lady sings.
- 1 vote
The sad thing is what is to be the writing on the wall.
We are coming to plan "Z" where A through Y have not fully given desired results it will be one last ditch effort to highlight stagnation. The price of gasoline .
There is already talk as per usual to soften us up for it but the price of gas will be artificially inflated by those who can in the name of a Republican Hail Mary. There is nothing this GrOuP will stop at.
The media and watchdogs should be all over this and real reasons should be given for any large spike in the price of gas.
The situation in Iran should not be allowed to powder keg as part of this ploy either.
We have seen how the masses can make a difference and we should let it be known that if the price of gas goes too high for no apparent reason that we all will sit home on Memorial Day and drive nowhere.
Let the speculators speculate that.............
- 7 votes
obie-one, hopefully enough of us are awake and finally know that the Republican speculators are trying their last ditch war mongering, gas price spiking tactics to save themselves, and we will not buy their lies and manipulations again. Yes, we will slow down consumption and they can rot with their oil, and we will not be fooled again.
- 5 votes
Absolutely. It seems odd that the closer we get to the nationals, the higher the gasoline prices go unless it looks like a Republican victory, then they go down again. Just 'cause you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't really after you!
- 1 vote
There is already talk as per usual to soften us up for it but the price of gas will be artificially inflated by those who can in the name of a Republican Hail Mary. There is nothing this GrOuP will stop at.
Absolutely.
If you look back at recent election cycles, the pump price of gasoline has fallen dramatically. 2006, check; 2008 with the Reps still holding the White House and effectively still controlling Congress, check.
Immediately post election - right back up.
The significance of that "coincidence" was not lost on me.
- 1 vote
Republicans are thinking "it won't be them?" Kind of early, to start crowing, Liberals and Democrats. Jimmy Carter was favored to win in 1980. After all, he was running against a Hollywood Actor type!
I, like many independents, am disgusted with Obama's generally ineffective incompetence and lack of real leadership. We're all hoping for a change -- A REAL CHANGE come November. Now where could I get myself one of those neat NOBAMA bumper stickers, I wonder.
We're all hoping for a change -- A REAL CHANGE come November
So we're agreed then that a return to the failed policies of the Republican Party, that led us into the biggest recession in a lifetime, isn't the right way to go.
- 8 votes
Kind of early, to start crowing, Liberals and Democrats.
Fine. We'll see you in November.
- 2 votes
I, like many independents, am disgusted with Obama's generally ineffective incompetence and lack of real leadership.
Well, we all know how "independents" (read GOP fundamentalists) need a leader that doesn't bother weighing people down with pragmatism and reason... you need someone you can blindly follow to the edge of the cliff bullets be damned, right? Why let anything like actual facts about problems at hand and the intellectual pursuit of real answers get in the way of a good battle cry aimed at stomping out your manufactured flavor-of-the day social problems?
- 2 votes
Well 20% of registered Republicans already said they intend to vote Obama and theirr was a 19% shift from Romney to Obama in just 4 months...Whatever your problem with President Obama is , it isn't outshining rational republicans and independents disdain for the republican field...but I for one will never be so arrogant as to presume the elections over till its over...and I'm praying for Many Obama Santorum debates...please,god?
- 3 votes
Topcat - you have anything that backs that up? Links please if you have them.
- 2 votes
I've said this waaayyy back and I'll say it again.
The Republicans wanted nothing to do with 2008 and 2012 in the White House.
They were planning to sabotage Obama for the whole time and when those of us "Passed on" they would target the people that were 8 years old during Bush and looking for a job during Obama. They know that when the debacle happened an 8 year old would say "yeah, ok" and now that reality (the perceived reality from the sabotage) of adulthood, they would blame the problems they refused to fix, on the Dems and Obama. And stick someone in there.
The problem now is that Obama's plans are starting to work and the public isn't afraid of the Boogeyman in the White House anymore.
Next, Obama has run his campaign brilliantly, he's exposing the right and the Republicans in segments. They walked in to a genius trap set with the Church/ Birth Control issue. As soon as the Church was taken out of the equation the covers were pulled off the Republicans for millions of female voters to see.
The Harry Reid threat of recession appointments will show their obstructionist segment.
And last but not least, the budget is riddled with land mines. each cut ties directly to the cash cow of the Republicans, each improvement proposed is near and dear to the public. If the Republicans balk on the cuts, Obama will light up the cash trail right to the Republican pockets, if they balk on improvements they lose the voter, if they go with the cuts the money dries up. After all, that's what these guys were donating for was the subsidies and such.
This is not going to be Obama vs. Romney/Gingrich/Santorum/Paul or even Jeb Bush....Whoever is in that spot will lose by association with the Republicans and Tea Party as Obama is exposing them at every turn. The best part is he hasn't spent the first dime in Advertising for this, it's all being done in the news. Since News is much more believable than an advertisement, the public will burn that deeper in their memory.
- 6 votes
I agree wholeheartedly - I just hope enough people show up in November to wash the filth out of the House of Representatives....THEN we can see some true work done.
Get rid of the likes of Bachmann, Goehmert, West, Walsh, Schmidt, Cantor, Ryan, Boehner, King, Issa and all the other nuts and put people who have a brain and a desire to work FOR America.....then we can move forward.
- 1 vote
You're seeing that now...it's the "Redneck Republican Comedy Farewell Tour" Bachmann got her last kick in yesterday, saying goodbye.
Palin said her goodbye at CPAC, Beck just blurbed his last audible incoherent statment from a closet somewhere. West, Goehmert, Issa, just all said their goodbye.
Ryan, Boehner, and McConnell will get theirs in a form of pink slip next cycle.
The Tea Party will starve to death in Public, and that's where the GOP wants it to happen, after all, they are the scape goat for the RNC Survival. Fox has already dumped them...it's coming.
- 2 votes
I hope so....I saw part of Bachmann's trainwreck on CNN and it was painful to watch......but she should have been bounced years ago.....That said, I just can't see many of these teabaggers holding their jobs this year - the lies, the bullsht legislation, the kooky points of view - it's pissed off a lot of people, I just hope it pissed off those with the power to vote them out.
I think some form of that will be coming too. If the governor's recall in Wisconsin is a success I imagine a ripple effect coming. But it's just my imagination at this point.
- 1 vote
Allow me to join in your imagining.....I don't see Walker overcoming the recall....Kasich's bill was overturned by the people in Ohio (if I remember correctly), Snyder's not looking too good in Michigan, and while Scott, Perry and McDonnell can't be recalled in their states, I don't see their political futures being all too bright (Perry is NOT as popular here in TX as people believe, and less so after he embarrassed TX....AGAIN!)
But alas, we do not have crystal balls so we will have to wait and see.
- 1 vote
Well moreover I'd be interested at what could be done at the Branch level like Senator or Congressman.
True - Congress is the easiest pickups, but never forget that the State level positions truly can cause the most havoc. Look at the current legislation being pushed in Virginia, Alabama, Wisconsin, etc.....if it passes the state level, the Feds take no action and the courts rule in favor, then what are we stuck with?
- 1 vote
The Republican Party will not win in November.They have insulted every voter in the country except the one's who have no mind of their own.It is one thing to be all the things they say they are but yet another to show the contempt and hate for everything and everyone that doesn't think the way they do.
Most are not really christians they just go to church. This countrry is to diverse and the good old boys will be left in the dust for a nation that will move forward by 2013 they will be totally irrelevant
- 4 votes
All good things start with a positive attitude. Now let's get to work and throw the bum out.
- 1 vote
Deano - The baggerz have been busily at work for the last three years and you are now seeing the fruits of their labor. They are going to be weeping openly in the streets and gnawing on those nifty tricorner hats.
And - in case you haven't noticed - they are not exactly suffused with a positive attitude.
Obama 2012
- 4 votes
Republican Politics would be more fitting in a place like Argentina
- 1 vote
" they are not exactly suffused with a positive attitude." - Excellent choice of words.
Even FOX/Saudi has been backing away from the colonialist Tea Party....of any name. And if you didn't see that coming with the demise of Beck's show and the toning down from O'Reilly of all places? Rove is all but gone, Palin said her goodbyes at CPAC. And the Tea Party is suddenly going to be starving for cash....
Time to come back to sanity.
- 3 votes
All good things start with a positive attitude.
The attitude (and actions) of Republicans beginning 1/20/09, which is when they established themselves as the Party of No, is a wonderful example, don't you think?
- 2 votes
Rorshach,
Their "doom and gloom" talk started long before that....I can't remember the last time the GOP had a "positive" attitude....except when they were reveling in "Mission Accomplished".
- 3 votes
Gosh, old Deano seems to have wandered off...lack of answers perhaps?
- 1 vote
We should stop wallowing the good news regarding the economy and Obama's poll numbers and the likelihood of a second Obama Presidential terms and throw our Republican friends a bone.
If Obama is re-elected then we shall have had three consecutive United States Presidents who have all been "two-termers". That would be Clinton, Dubya, and Obama. You have to go all the way back to Thomas Jefferson to find a streak like that. In our history, there has only been one other time where we had three two-termers in a row. That would be Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe. So, historically speaking, the odds that Obama gets re-elected to a second term, based on this tidbit of information, are slim but certainly not unprecedented.
Doesn't that make my Republican friends feel better?
- 2 votes
The right may be pessimistic but you shouldnt get jubilant. The very best thing that could happen to the GOP is for us to start to think Obama's second term is a sure thing. Those of us with a little less er... enthusiasm, might just stay home in November if we think it wont matter and what if it also rains? rain has a tendency to suppress the dem vote more than the GOP as the elderly, the poor and the handicapped tend to be dem.
The right have also greatly out raised Obama, and that is only the money we are privy to be aware of. With citizens united there will be far more than that in the elections.(the supreme court decision from our fascist right wing might be one of the worst in US history). The general public does NOT pay attention. Do believe me? go to a mall or somewhere with people, randomly ask 10 people about the deficit reduction committee or about even about the whole contraception thing. Sure they might have heard of it but I doubt they could tell you the deficit committee failed only due to the right refusal to raise taxes. They might have heard of the birth control crap but I doubt they know it was already settled or that republicans like santorium want to even ban things like prenatal screenings. There is a reason why "october surprises" are so effective, it is because people dont pay any attention until we get to the wire. Right now Obamas polling is above but way way way too close to the republicans to cheer.
and I havent even gotten to the fact that the GOP ran most of the states in 2010, when we had to redistrict due to the census. Even in states that werent as blatant as texas in drawing their district lines to support republicans, they all still draw them to lean and help republicans.(dems would have done the same our distracting rules need a changing, some states have removed the partisan element but most have not.)
Dont forget that they are setting up voter Id laws all over the country and 1 our of every 4 black men and women of age to vote dont have an ID. And sorry right wing parrots, they havent needed them to get a prescription, get on a plane, go see a movie.. etc(I'm pretty sure even right wingers found a way to drink when they were underage it isnt as hard when you are OF age but lacking an ID)
www.theroot.com/buzz/25-percent-blacks-dont-have-id-voting-0
They do blame blacks and the media for putting that "halfican" in the WH
and then their are the koch brother type tricks.
calling bombing the dem "drive you to the poll" effort, so that the elderly and poor who live far away cant get rides to the polls.
or they send faked absentee ballots with the wrong dates on them, or send our faked emergency notices saying the election date has changed.
dont forget using companies like choicepoint to remove 15,000 LEGAL VOTERS from the rolls(to me that is 15,000 counts of treason)
Yes the republican field is a joke and the GOP cant seem to make up their minds on who to pick and the turn out for primaries has been crap, but it is no time to celebrate. WE may have a full house in our hands but we are playing against professional cheaters.
Inform family and friends on draconian republican laws and comments, organised a get out the vote party. make sure you people who say they will get up and get out and vote, actually do. GO OUT AND HELP SOMEONE GET AN ID. Make sure people know they need an ID and it is important.(you know it is hard to get people to vote anyways, we normally have way less than 50% of eligible voters voting, and if you put an obstacle like they have to get an ID as well, many lazy people just give up)
The time isnt to celebrate but to put your nose to the grind stone in renewed effort.
What? Me Worry? It's too early to say who will win in November. But Republicans increasingly seem to think it won't be them.
Well if your choices were the ultimate 1%er, a whackjob religious fascist, a washed up former Speaker, and a very old man - you'd think that way too!
- 1 vote
They increasingly think it won't be them? Good, they are beginning to catch on, not smarter, just catching on!! Do they understand even their stand-ins or bench players aren't any better? The more they open their mouths the worse it gets.
I worry about the impact of high energy prices on the election. While the Republican candidates are much less than ideal, high energy costs drive up the prices of all goods. That makes people feel poorer and makes them more likely to vote against the status quo -- in this case President Obama.
- 1 vote
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